Why Coronavirus Models Fail . . . and how to keep your head amid the ever-changing, often contradictory pronouncements

It’s easy to be seduced by the word, “model.” Alas, we have short memories. Just weeks ago, respected models predicted cataclysmic shortages of ventilators. That spurred the media to attack government for not doing more. Yet just a week later, the creators of the model that policymakers most rely on and that the media most cites, the IHME model, essentially said, “Never mind.” The model’s prediction of a lack of ventilators and hospital beds proved dramatically wrong.

Why are models so often wrong? My Psychology Today article today offers explanations and how to keep your head amid the ever-changing, often contradictory pronouncements.