Saturday, August 20, 2011

Transportation Reinvented

Yes, Americans love their cars, and with good reason: Plunking yourself down into the private sanctuary of your car, with a comfy seat and temperature adjusted precisely where you like it, listening to just what you want or to nothing, you leave precisely when you want to go wherever you want, point-to-point.


Contrast that with mass transit. For the vast majority of the country, even in most cities, mass transit is a bad alternative. One typically needs to walk or drive to get to the train or bus station, try to find a parking spot, wait for the bus or train, deal with the uncomfortability of being crowded into a mass conveyance, too often exacerbated by loud or physically threatening youths. You must wait for each stop, and on arrival at your stop, take another bus or train and/or walk, rain, shine, or blizzard, to your destination. Door-to-door time can be two to three times as long as driving. Especially in our ever busier, more stressful lives, enduring mass transit is just not a satisfactory solution.


My favorite alternative to building more roads is the flying car. Because it could fly anywhere, not just on a road, the existence of a practical flying car is the equivalent of creating hundreds of times the current number of freeways and other roads for free. The skycar would take off vertically, so no airport is required. Lest you think this is a Jetsons-cartoon-like fantasy, the SkyCar exists in prototype and goes 350 miles per hour and gets 20 miles a gallon using clean-burning ethanol. Another brand of flying car, the Terrafugia, requiring an airport, has already been approved by the Federal Transportation Safety Board and will be available in 2012. Those experimental vehicles provide evidence that within a decade--the time these days it takes to get a freeway approved and built--a mass-affordable, safe flying car could be available.


In the interim, I believe we must not focus on mass transit but build more roads and add lanes. We simply cannot ask people to sit in ever greater gridlock, while their idling cars spew ever more pollutants.


However, more effort needs to be made to innovate in freeway construction, for example, factory-prebuilt road sections (like sections of model train tracks), constructed of a nanotech-designed (honeycomb?) amalgam of recycled materials. The modules would be shipped by truck from factory to the road site and laid, one next to another. Compared with conventional road building, it would be cheaper and faster, avoiding the years of traffic delays that occur every time even a new lane is added.


Toll plazas, even with transponder toll-paying, greatly increases traffic congestion. An answer: in counties containing toll roads, bridges, or tunnels, add a fee added to each driver's annual car registration. Some would argue that would be unfair to drivers who don't use those roads, but all our taxes pay for services we may not use, welfare, for example.


I support sharp increases in CAFE standards: the average gas mileage of a vehicle manufacturer's cars and trucks. Such increases restrict people's freedom minimally while improving our energy independence and reducing pollution. And higher CAFE standards lower our cost not only of fuel but of our vehicles--lighter vehicles cost less.


Every year, 13,000 people die in vehicle accidents caused by drunk drivers. Countless more are injured. I advocate that all steering wheels be required to contain an alcohol sensor that, if the person is intoxicated, locks the car's engine. Those are already available, indeed used in a Nissan concept car.


Bicycles, mopeds, and motorcycles are cost-effective, energy-saving alternatives to the car but their use is limited because of safety. Among the biggest safety problems is that drivers fail to see two-wheel vehicles, especially at night. So I advocate that all two-wheeled vehicles be required to have strips of highly reflective tape affixed to their frames. HERE is an example.


As always, I welcome your thoughts.

National Defense Reinvented

We spend more on defense than anything: The projected budget is over $1 trillion dollars for 2012 alone!

It's time to take a closer look at whether we'd get more cost-benefit by reallocating most of the defense spending to other initiatives such as medical and education research, reducing our debt, relieving gridlock, giving to the poor, and returning money to the millions of struggling taxpayers to pump back into the economy as each person sees fit.


For me, any purchase is justified mainly by its cost-benefit versus its opportunity cost. For example, the U.S. maintains hundreds of military bases around the world from Antigua to Turkey, staffed by 360,000 service members, costing many billions of dollars every year. I believe we must more rigorously assess, for each base, "How much would our safety be reduced if we eliminated that base or reduced it to just a handful of software-assisted human monitors. Would the benefit of reallocating that money elsewhere be worth that increase in risk?"


I predict that subjecting each defense spending item to that test would result in dramatically reduced military spending.


My vote for the most cost-effective defense expenditure? Expanded conversation with our enemies, including radical groups such as Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Of course, not everything is remediable with discussion. I believe that no conversations with Hitler would have deterred him wanting to dominate the world. But the risk/reward and cost/benefit ratios of conversation are excellent.


Large defense cuts wouldn't have been as (ahem) defensible in decades past. But today, much of the threat to our security is miniaturized: solo actor terrorists, compact weapons such as suitcase nukes, bioweapons, and old-fashioned remote-control triggered fertilizer bombs. Massive military bases, battleships, and aircraft bombers have minimal impact. Indeed, they often cause much collateral damage, not only to people and property but to our worldwide reputation. When one of our aerial bombs destroys even one innocent person or building (which is almost impossible to avoid,) our error, thanks to the Internet, becomes instant worldwide-disseminable propaganda that is used against us.


My proposed cost-benefit analysis would likely result in the military budget being reduced by more than half. That would leave hundreds of billions of dollars every year for the aforementioned more cost-beneficial initiatives, including reducing our debt. The latter, in itself, could improve our national security more than all the B-2 bombers.


As always, I welcome your thoughts.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

Media Censorship on Race Hurts Us All

Although I read widely, I had no idea that "mobs of young blacks rampaged through Philadelphia committing violence – as similar mobs have rampaged through Chicago, Denver, Milwaukee and other places" (including the London lootings and Paris firebombings.) The media has, in recent years, been withholding perpetrators' race, even when an attack is racial. (unless the perpetrator is white.)

How did I learn of the Black rampages? These days, only a Black is allowed to write about, let alone criticize such behavior without censorship or ruining his career. THIS is most recent syndicated column by eminent Stanford/Hoover Senior Fellow, Thomas Sowell. (It's worth reading all three parts, which are linked to from that page.)

I do think the gap between rich and poor has grown too large. However, the media's relentlessly deifying the assaults and lootings as "protests," and the media's and schools' refusal to stress that poverty is caused not just by "the system," but by individuals' behavior, disempowers the poor and endangers us all.

Friday, August 12, 2011

Einstein, the Magical Doggie: Why a busy person should adopt a pet

A friend said, "Marty, work is so important to you, I didn't figure you'd want to take the time to care for a dog."

Yes, there are occasional times I feel it's not worth it, but mostly I feel that getting my doggie, Einstein, has been among my wisest decisions.

Einstein is a great source of nurturance and a stressbuster. When I'm at my desk, Einstein is often lying at my feet, which feels great, and when I need an extra dose of love, I pet him or roll around the floor with him. After that one-minute break, I'm refreshed and ready to go back to work.

Einstein ensures that I exercise every day--he has to go out. So we take two short walks and one vigorous three-mile hike every day.

My clients--well, most of my clients--love Einstein. He welcomes them with more warmth than the warmest receptionist. And I only need pay Einstein in love and kibble. (By the way, Orijen is probably the best dog food.) When the session starts, unless the client prefers he doesn't, Einstein settles down next to the client on the sofa or floor. He's a great co-counselor.

Yes, having a dog is a responsibility. It's like having a baby who never grows up. But for me, at least, it has been well worth it. Indeed, I consider Einstein my Magical Doggie.

If you're considering adopting a pet, let me make a pitch for getting him or her from a pound, humane society, ASPCA, or rescue organization:
  • The mixed-breed you'll probably get is more likely to be healthier than the often too-inbred purebreds. The term "hybrid vigor" is valid.
  • You won't be supporting a puppy mill, which too often treat dogs inhumanely.
  • The cost is dramatically lower. The average dog bought from a breeder costs $1,000. A pet from one of the aforementioned sources averages 90% less.
  • You're possibly saving a life. Someone had thrown Einstein into the overnight bin at a pound. In the morning, the attendant found him shaking and clutching a barbecued rib. Many doggies and kitties must be put to sleep within weeks of entering the shelter. I will take care of my Einstein, hopefully, for many years to come.
HERE is an online PetFinder that lists 300,000 adoptable pets from 13,000 adoption groups across the country.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

A Moving Short Video

This is such a moving 3-minute-video. It's also a perfect example of screenwriting's #1 rule: show, don't tell. Words get in the way. The three minutes contains a total of six short lines of script.

Your Last Year for Dummies

The publisher of those yellow and black books, the for Dummies series, has asked me to submit a proposal to write my second for Dummies book for them. (My previous was Cool Careers for Dummies.) This one would be Your Last Year for Dummies. (alternate titles: Dying for Dummies, Dying Well for Dummies.)

Here it is. I welcome your reactions and suggestions for its improvement.

In life's December, people and their families need a book that, while authoritative, has a light touch--perfect for a for Dummies book, in my opinion. It will be written so it would be of value for the person with a year or less to live, their family members, or professional caregivers.

Table of Contents

PART 1: So You're Terminal. Now What?

Chapter 1: "I have WHAT?!" The art of getting a great second opinion.

Chapter 2: Dealing with the (damn) health care system. Deciding what you want, and getting it from your health care providers and insurers.

Chapter 3: Hope against hope. This chapter will explain how to find pockets of hope even if you've accepted that your time is running out.

Chapter 4: Getting to feel okay about dying: a buffet of ideas from diverse religious and secular perspectives.

PART 2: Developing Your Dying Well Plan

You can die well: accomplishing what you want, nurturing the relationships you want, leaving the legacy you want. This Part will show you how to do it.

Chapter 5: Go gentle into the good night? What do you want to accomplish, and how will you make it happen, even if you're aren't your ol' self? They say that no one ever died wishing they spent more time at the office, but one size does not fit all. Isaac Asimov, who wrote or edited over 500(!) books, when asked, "What would you do if you had six months to live?" replied, "Type faster."

Chapter 6: Your relationships: dealing with your spouse, children, friends, perhaps parents. For example, how do you tell them you're pending? I'll include sample scripts. With whom do you want to spend more (and less) time? Doing what? Which estranged relationships do you want to try to fix? Deathbed rapprochements are unquestionably dramatic but only sometimes wise.

Chapter 7: Your legacy. How can you give your life's work "legs?" For example, if you've been a ...for Dummies editor, might you want to write an article on the art of being a for Dummies editor? Being a parent? This chapter will also help readers figure out to whom and what to leave their money so they feel good about their legacy. The chapter will also help the reader decide which kind of will or trust will be most helpful.

Chapter 8: Getting all those stupid records in order. You don't want to saddle your family with a confusing mountain of paper. This chapter will show how to shrink it as quickly as possible. You have better things to do with your life than fuss with papers.

PART 3: Nuts and Bolts

Chapter 9: Planning your memorial: Should the event be sober and reflective? The (ahem) ultimate party? How about your gravestone? For once, no one will edit your writing. What do you want to say, really?

Chapter 10: Finding a wizard. The right executor can vanish your now-simplified mound of paper and fulfill your every desire. This chapter will include a basic guide to executor wizardry.

Chapter 11: Dealing with the funeral industry (or avoiding it)

Chapter 12: Hospice. If you need it, a lovely option.

PART 4: The Part of Tens

Chapter 13: Ten secrets to finding a doctor's doctor, lawyer's lawyer, etc.

Chapter 14: Ten wondrous things to consider putting on your bucket list.

Chapter 15: Ten ways to avoid procrastinating on the yucky tasks.

Chapter 16: Ten ways to be get more done in less time. Time is the one thing you don't have lots of. Let's make the most of it.

Chapter 17: Ten ways to make pain less of a pain.

Chapter 18: Ten ways to depress your depression

Chapter 19: Ten bang-for-the-buck charities to leave money to

Chapter 20: Ten tricks for living better with memory loss

Chapter 21: Ten great last parties

Chapter 22: Ten smart (or funny) quotes about death and dying.

Chapter 23: The Last Lecture. I'll write the last lecture I'd give if I were about to die. Then, I'll ask questions to help the reader create their Last Lecture.

About the (alive and kicking) Author

I've been thinking about death and dying my whole life. When I was just seven, I'd lie in bed calculating the percentage of my lifetime I likely had left. As a young adult, I became a hypochondriac, which further increased my focus on death. Fortunately I'm now cured but still quite aware of my mortality. That helps me make the most of every minute, an example of which would be to write this book. My lifetime interest in mortality makes me enthusiastic and writing and promoting Your Last Year for Dummies.

More objective qualifications to write this book: My Ph.D. from the University of California, Berkeley specialized in evaluation and in educational psychology. My expertise in evaluation will inform the book's sections on choosing a doctor, lawyer, executor, developing a treatment plan, indeed, all the book's fact-centric sections. My background in psychology will help me more wisely guide the reader through the challenging psychological issues that older people and their families face.

I have a decent platform (23rd year hosting a show on NPR-San Francisco, popular blog and website, frequent guest on major shows, award-winning keynote speaker, and am an enthusiastic book promoter. For example, my previous for Dummies book sold over 100,000 copies and spent a month at #2 on the Wall Street Journal Business Bestseller list, behind only a book that's rather tough to beat: What Color is Your Parachute has sold 10,000,000 copies.

A final qualification: I've written books for four publishers and find the for Dummies people and its publishing process the best. I'd welcome working with you guys again.

If a co-author or writer of a foreword is desired, here are some possibilities: Dr. Mehmet Oz, Bill Cosby, Jack La Lanne (oops, he just died,) or Dr. Phil (McGraw) who is a client of my agent, Dupree-Miller.

Monday, August 8, 2011

Three Steps to a Better America

The responses to the S&P downgrading of America's debt have consisted mainly of blaming the other party and palliative suggestions.

I believe bolder ideas exist that would not only save our financial system but improve our quality of life.

I recognize that these three ideas are easier to recommend than to implement but as Goethe wrote, "Small goals inspire no one."

1. America must scale back its aspirations. It can no longer be the world's superpower. As all empires from the Roman to the British, the American Empire has had its rise and now is in its fall. Partly because of America's hubris, its largess, and its profligacy, and partly because of competition from Asia, the U.S. will unavoidably descend to become merely one of a number of major nations.

So, for example, the U.S. can no longer afford to be the world's policeman: we must get out of Iraq and Afghanistan now. We no longer can afford military bases around the world.

Nor can the taxpayer afford to build fancy buildings (the new lobby of San Francisco City Hall is pictured above.)

Nor can government afford to spend on risky "innovations." Most innovation that government "invests" in is that which every company has rejected as a bad idea. Most government investments are sloppy 10,000ths.

For example, the government now wants us to forget about its ethanol debacle so it can get us to invest in its energy idea du jour--solar and wind energy--despite their physics delimiting them to being no more than a tiny contributor to our energy solution. Indeed that fact is acknowledged by the collective wisdom of the market: the solar and wind stock indices are down 85% from their highs, which, not coincidentally, were when Obama took office.

Similarly, we should not spend more on education. The U.S. has long ranked #1 in per-capita education spending yet our achievement ranks #23, tied with Poland. There is no evidence that 'investing" yet more on education spending will yield an acceptable rate of return. That is especially critical with the U.S.'s economy so precarious. But the phrase, "invest in education" (including the now-proven ineffectual Head Start) sounds good so politicians continue to tout it. We'd be wiser to close down the entire massive education bureaucracy: the U.S. Dept of Education, State Depts of Education, County Offices of Education, and all but a few District Offices of Education. The cost and labyrinthine, often conflicting, mountain of mandates from those bureaucracies improves education little; indeed, may, net, make it worse.

The savings derived from the above should be used to pay down our debt, balance the budget, and eventually, returned to middle- and working-class income taxpayers to spend as they see fit, which would create sustainable jobs., unlike the government's "stimulus" jobs, which have been calculated as costing us at least $278,000 per job, and created "shovel-ready" projects that weren't.

2. Convert health care (including Medicare) into a basic free safety net for the poor and free-market, fee-for-service for everyone else, except for catastrophic care, for which private insurers would provide competing products. The free-hand of the 300,000,000 Americans would drive down cost and improve quality. The government's role would merely be to require health care providers and insurers to provide clear, potent information to enable even the most vulnerable of our citizens to wisely choose their health care providers.

3. Convert from a consumer-spending-driven economy to a quality-of-life driven economy. The public could and should be educated by schools, colleges, and government to recognize that the path to a life well-led and a society we can be proud of involves goals of creative expression, kindness, and societal contribution, not of a new car, bigger house, and yet another pair of shoes.

As always, your comments are welcome.
 

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