When There Aren't Enough Good Jobs to Go Around

Most routine and moderate-judgment jobs will be automated. Many high-judgment jobs will require exceptional reasoning ability and technical skills. That means that hundreds of millions of Americans, not mention the billions worldwide, won't sustainably earn enough income.

Most of them will live very modestly, perhaps relying on a Guaranteed Basic Income. But even if they are thus financially supported, they will lack the satisfaction of a job: being productive, needed, appreciated. The obvious sequelae are depression, anger,  crime, and drug abuse. Is there a way to avoid all that?

My PsychologyToday.com article today offers a proposal. Your agreement, amplification, disagreement, and alternate proposals are welcome.

A World With Few Decent Jobs: A pessimistic but possible scenario

Previously on PsychologyToday.com, I’ve written job projections, for example, this, that concludes that for, at least the next decade or two, we needn’t worry much. 

Alas, there is another scenario worth contemplating in which far fewer decent jobs will be available. I lay it out in my PsychologyToday.com article today.

THE Gap

We speak of income inequality gaps too symptomatically: We may speak of an achievement gap, income gap,  and digital divide.

But there’s a more foundational gap that society must first address if it expects to close the others: the efficacy gap.

There's consensus that ever more repetitive jobs will be automated, and that ever more of the remaining decent-paying jobs will require technical chops, people skills, and emotional solidity strong enough to handle the accelerating pace of change, not to mention life's timeless slings and arrows. Alas, too many people cannot be expected to solidly possess that amalgam.

What to do? I offer an approach in my PsychologyToday.com article today.

The Future of Work

U.C. Berkeley has invited me back to give my second  lecture there that is open to the public.  This one is called, The Future of Work." The university is sponsoring it so it is free. It's at 6:30 PM on Sep 12. Click HERE for details.

Will Humans Be Necessary?

I explore some of the implications for people in an ever more automated world. That's my PsychologyToday.com article today.

The Hollowing-Out Middle Class...and How to Avoid Being a Victim of It

The middle class is hollowing out. 

Real median household income is lower today than in 1999. Today, in our supposed recovery, more than 44 million Americans are on food stamps.

Another measure of how bad the job situation really is is the Labor Participation Rate—the percentage of Americans 18-64 who are working—62.7%, is the lowest since 1978. 

The government trumpets and the media parrots the so-called “unemployment rate” of 4.6%.That statistic doesn’t include the short- and long-term discouraged workers, which when added equals, according to ShadowStats.com, 22%. 

Alas, the decline in the number of good jobs, those paying a stable, middle-class income plus benefits is worsening.

I document that in my PsychologyToday.com article today and propose ways to maximize your chances of thriving despite it.
 

How the End of Jobs Could Be a Good Thing

 

Most experts agree that automation and globalization will cause the loss of at least half of all jobs within the next couple of decades.

Many observers fear that will lead to massive unhappiness, civil unrest, or even Armageddon because people primally need work both to survive and for a sense of self.

I'm inclined to agree but that's a psychologically difficult future to live with, so I've been trying to come up a positive scenario. My PsychologyToday.com article today offers my best shot:

12 Predictions for 2050

As my PsychologyToday.com article today, I make 12 predictions for 2050.

Could the Reduction in Good Jobs Actually Be Good for America?

Automation, dysgenic birth rates, high immigration rates of unskilled people,  the ballooning cost of hiring an American, and globalization will dramatically cut the number of good jobs in the U.S. 

 

As a result, most Americans will have to live much simpler, less materialistic lives. Some will rebel--e.g., violent revolution may be possible. Less aggressive people will replace the time they would have spent in paid work in volunteerism, relationships, and in creative output, e.g., writing, painting, singing, community theatre. 

 

Is it thus possible that quality of life, net, in the U.S. will be better as a result?

More on The End of Jobs. What the Hell Will Happen?

MIT has just announced it will allow students to get credit for some of its online courses for free. 

That is merely the latest step toward the conversion of paid teachers to essentially unpaid, as is usually the case with Udemy, Coursera, Udacity, edX, etc. Yet more people moved into volunteer work, just as so many formerly paid journalists must now write for free. 

The reduction in paid teaching is merely the latest bullet into the body of jobs. 

• Tellers have been replaced by ATMs, supermarket checkers by self-checkout, toll-takers by camera watchdogs.  
• Waiters, in chains such as Olive Garden, Applebee's Panera, Red Robin, Chili's, and Pizzeria Uno are being replaced by tablets. (Tell the truth, will you miss the waiter any more than you miss the bank teller,  supermarket checker, or toll taker?) 
• Soon, truck, bus, and train drivers will be eliminated in favor of self-driving vehicles that never speed, take a sick day, nor require health care benefits. The robots are coming. 
• Offshoring is ever easier and more effective. 

Ever fewer of those high-cost American employees will be needed---a few geniuses at the top, lots more to do janitorial and similar work. What about the huge numbers of other people whom employers are not willing to pay a living wage plus ObamaCare, Social Security, Disability, Workers Compensation, Paid Family Leave, etc? 

What will this evolve or devolve to? Without sufficient work, people go nuts in idleness, not to mention broke, perhaps without basic food, shelter, transportation, and health care.

And with genomic medicine around the corner, we'll be living longer--more decades with not enough to do. 

What is the answer? Certainly not mandated 30-hour workweeks. That merely will cause better workers getting fewer hours and worse ones getting more. Bad, bad. 

Can we count on the creative destruction of capitalism to create enough new jobs we can't yet imagine? Who knows? 

Could this even spawn Armageddon? As WMDs become more miniaturized and powerful (like mutated highly communicable bioviruses), all it takes is one crazy bioscientist pushed over the edge because s/he can't find work to release a vial of the stuff in an international airport's parking lot bus and billions will die. Imagine what an ISIS or other terrorist groups and even countries will be able to do. 

The U.S and Europe appears to be continuing to prioritize civil liberties--worrying about whether we're kind enough to Gitmo prisoners and whether the NSA's review of anonymous phone records violates the Constitution. 

Meanwhile, might terrorist groups and maybe even the Irans and Chinas of the world, less fettered by such concerns, destroy us? 

Anyone have a more optimistic yet realistic vision?

The Dejobbing of Society and What to Do About It

Over the past two years on my radio program , I've been talking to a range of experts on the future of work. Today, after reading a long cover story on the topic in The Atlantic, I decided to synthesize my thoughts in my PsychologyToday.com article today.

The End of Jobs...Hurray?

This appeared in the April 2014 edition of the Mensa publication, The Intelligencer.

The End of Jobs…Hurray? 

by Marty Nemko

By now, everyone knows the unemployment rate severely masks the true employment situation. Not only does it not count people who have given up on looking for work, it doesn’t count the underemployed: for example, college-degree holders with jobs that don’t require a degree, or people working part-time/temp when they’d prefer a full-time, secure position.

Ever more jobs are automated. Bank teller jobs have been replaced by ATMs, supermarket cashier jobs by self-checkout, tolltakers by FastTrak. In the face of increased minimum wage and living wage ordinances, robotic fast-food preparers and servers have been developed: custom burger and burrito makers in California, sushi makers in Japan, cookie makers in Poland. The automated barista may replace that failsafe job—Starbucks barista. There’s a robot bookstore clerk and IBM is developing a robot retail clothing clerk.  Many but not all customers will prefer that to the $10 an hour pushy but often incompetent sales clerk. And retail employers will prefer not having to worry about employees taking sick days when not sick, being bad with customers, and/or quitting soon after being trained—turnover in retail is over 100 percent. Bartending jobs are at-risk. I just went to a dance at a venue where the bartender was a machine: stick your credit card in, pick your drink from the screen, and out it comes, just like from a soda vending machine. Leading companies such as Google, FedEx, and Amazon are investing big in driverless vehicles—bye-bye jobs as taxi drivers, truck drivers, bus drivers, even train engineers. Even home-building is at risk. 3D-printers are projected to be able to print homes out of concrete in under a day—bye-bye thousands of construction jobs.
 

And of course, there’s offshoring. While politicians keep urging more Americans to major in a tough science, technology, engineering, or math (STEM) field, ever more of those tech jobs are being offshored, notably to India and China, which have a long tradition of valuing science, math, and technology, and populations many times the size of the U.S.’s. Already, there's an oversupply of STEM graduates. Evidence:THIS  and THIS and THIS and THIS.That can only accelerate as ever more work product can be sent over the internet. Ever more companies are figuring, “Why should I pay American wages plus Workers Comp, Disability, Social Security, ObamaCare, paid family leave, Americans with Disabilities Act compliance costs, plus that of ever increasing employee lawsuits, when I can get someone in Asia for a small fraction of the cost? Are American workers really so superior?”

In a TED talk, Dr. Thomas Frey, Google’s top-rated futurist speaker, projects that, by 2030, half of all jobs worldwide, two billion, will be lost. An Oxford University study projects that half of U.S. jobs will be lost just to automation. One could quibble with the percentage but our job security certainly will be at ever greater risk.

Then what will happen?

It’s easy to project a dystopian scenario: mass unemployment leading to mass destitution, armed robberies, and drug abuse to anesthetize the pain. 

But I thought it would be more interesting here to do a thought experiment in which the end of jobs would actually be a net positive for society.

With fewer people earning good incomes, only companies that provide basic products and services will thrive. That will be good for the environment. For example, car manufacturing will shrink and sell only affordable, economical cars. And people will repair and repair their old vehicles rather than buy new. Even if government takes over the airlines, the cost of planes, fuel, maintenance, and personnel will discourage people from flying. Again, good for the environment.

Also, today’s materialistic society tempts people to cut ethical corners to make more money so they can buy more stuff: new car, nicer clothes and jewelry, fancier vacations, live in 3,000 fancy square feet rather than 1,000 serviceable ones. In an economy in which fewer people are working let alone earning big bucks, materialism would be less core to societal values, reducing those pressures to be unethical.

Plus, with people having more time, more people will replace gratification from “stuff” with gratification from learning, creative arts, and in relationships from mentorship to family to involvement in pro-social organizations: from Rotary to SmileTrain to Mensa.

In the meantime
Even if you have a good job, might this column’s look at the future justify reconsidering your priorities? Yes, perhaps do more to secure your employment: upgrade your skills, work a little harder, build relationships with people who can abet your career, consider starting a business. But might replacing a materialistic lifestyle with a more meaningful one be good preparation not only for a scarce-jobs future but for your current life?

Days of Our Work Lives: An unvarnished look at work today: Part I: David's Saga. Episode 16: The End of Jobs

Days of Our Work Lives

Part I: David's Saga

Episode 16

The End of Jobs

In the previous episode, David and Susan tried to figure out the wisest approach to charity.  Having enjoyed the unusually deep conversation, they decided to go even deeper: "What will happen when ever more jobs get automated and offshored?"

This time, it wasn't much of a dialogue. It was something David has been thinking about for a long time:

"All we keep hearing is how jobs are disappearing. First it was ATMs replacing tellers, then self-checkout replacing supermarket checkers. Now they're developing driverless vehicles, robotic fast-food chefs and servers, baristas, and bartenders. 

"Wonderful, transformative teachers will, on video, teach classes using immersive simulations and interactivity. The human touch will be provided by lower-paid paraprofessionals. That will eliminate millions of teaching jobs, from elementary school to graduate school.

"IBM is developing a robot that will replace those annoying clothing sales clerks---It will use a laser to instantly get your measurements and walk you to clothes and the retailer's website items that will look great on you.

"IBM is also developing Dr. Watson, software aimed at being better than human doctors at diagnosing and recommending treatment. Indeed, artificial intelligence is replacing all sorts of professionals, from accountants to insurance adjusters.

Susan interrupted: "They've always said that every time a technology was invented: the cotton gin was going to eliminate farming jobs. The car was going to eliminate blacksmith and buggy-whip makers. Yet every time, more jobs were created."

David replied, "This time will be different because unlike previous generations of manufacturing, when you develop a piece of software, just a few people are required to distribute it worldwide. Besides, the cost of hiring an American has gone wild, with ObamaCare merely the latest on top of disability, worker's comp, Social Security, ADA compliance, Family and Medical Leave, and defending the ever increasing number of worker-rights lawsuits. With demographic trends and the Democrats' far superior messaging machine, Internet strategy, and ground game, and with the media at their back. this ain't no pendulum: it's a long-term trend. There simply won't be enough jobs.

Susan asked, "So what's going to happen?"

"In the short run, the middle class will keep getting hollowed out. People such as software engineers for companies that make silicon-based products--the Apples, Googles, Amazons--will do fine. And people in such non-offshoreable, not-automatable professions like dentist, occupational therapist, and fitness trainer will also be okay. But most other folks will have no choice but to take a menial service job like restaurant worker."

Susan asked, "But won't that cause a revolution?"

"It could. To avoid it, the government will have to keep extending unemployment checks indefinitely, or institute a guaranteed income. 

"With few people making a good income, only companies that provide the basics will stay viable. Even car manufacturers will go out of business because people will keep their cars longer and longer, repairing and repairing rather than replacing with new. People won't be able to afford to fly--the cost of the airplanes and the fuel will be beyond what people can pay, even if the airlines were to make no profit and the government were to nationalize them. 

"And of course, it becomes a vicious cycle. The more companies that go out of business, the fewer the jobs, and the less income people make. 

Susan asked, "So what will happen in the long-term?"

David replied, "My best guess is that we will become a much less materialistic society. We'll live very simply, much like we did centuries ago except that with computers and software being cheap, everyone will have technology to enhance their lives. The focus of government and private initiatives will be on the basics like health care, which will continue to improve thanks to that ever improving technology. 

"People need to work to have a sense of meaning, so they will continue to work at low or even no pay, just as so many journalists, artists, even reader reviewers on Amazon do today. 

"And we'll have more spare time, which we will, hopefully, use wisely. Rather than getting drunk or stoned on pot--which I'm sure will be legalized nationwide if only to anesthetize the population through its jobectomy--more people will focus on creative expression through writing and the arts, and through relationships: mentoring, friendship, and family. And the lack of materialism will be good for the environment."

Susan asked,, "But is human nature hard-wired to compete, to be acquisitional?

David replied, "It's possible. And if a few such people start that, it would trigger others to follow and we could end up back where we were. 

"But I feel the need to be a little more optimistic than that about humankind. If so, crazy at it may seem, the end of jobs, may in the end, net, be good for humankind."

Susan responded, "So every time I hear of another job getting roboticized, I should cheer?"

"Maybe."

And with that, David and Susan stared into the fire until all that was left in their personal pyrospectacular were a few embers floating into the chimney. Alas, tomorrow was to be less peaceful.

HERE is the next and final episode of David's Saga.

The U.S. Job Market is Improving? Bah, Humbug!

The government tries to convince us that the job market is improving by citing that the unemployment rate has declined.

That's grossly misleading. I prove so in my deeply pessimistic AOL.com article today.

To read it, click HERE.