The End of Jobs: What Happens Next?

Here's how the job diminution might play out. I call it the post-jobs economy.

1. Ever fewer jobs require people, least of all, expensive-to-hire Americans. On top of wages that are higher than in most countries, there's Obamacare, family leave (paid leave in CA and NJ,) worker's comp, Social Security, Medicare, disability, sick days, vacation days, and legal claims.

The jobs that remain in the U.S. will increasingly be low-pay crap jobs or high-pay intellectually difficult ones.

Technologies like supermarket and big-box-store self-checkout and robotelemarketers and collections agents have already put millions out of work. Next, self-driving vehicles will put more millions of truck, train, bus, and taxi drivers out of work. Fast-food workers who wrested higher salaries will find their victories to be Pyrrhic as companies find it cheaper and more reliable to use robotic servers and preparers as is already occurring in some fast-food restaurants in Japan and Europe. Now, IBM is developing a virtual clothing salesperson who will "listen" to you and your measurements and make recommendations, likely far more on-target than the $10-an-hour salesperson at the boutique or department store.The cover story of the current Economist predicts that biopsies will be done by computer rather than lab techs, wars fought by robots not soldiers, Big Data analyzed by computer not data miners, basic sports stories written by computer, title searches conducted by computer, insurance underwriting done by computer, and that mainly careers such as firefighter, clergy, and fitness trainer will be immune, although with the development of ever more potent fitness apps, I'm not so sure.

According to MIT jobs guru Andrew McAfee, even some work done by doctors, lawyers, and accountants will be done by computerized expert systems.

I predict that most teacher jobs will go away. The most transformational instructors will teach online, which will improve instruction nationwide, with paraprofessionals onsite to provide the human touch.

Ben Way, author of the new book, Jobocalypse, claims that 70 percent of all jobs will be gone within 30 years, including teachers, bartenders, nurses, even babysitters.

U.S. wages will thus, within 30 years, be near the world average of $18,000 a year.

2. The growing number of poor people will result in our electing politicians who will "soak the rich" more and use the money to transfer dollars to the poor and to pay for single-payer health care. That will forestall major increases in crime and rioting.

Despite the redistribution, people will learn to live on much less--like 100 square feet per person. Many people will be forced to give up their car in favor of mass transit. Recreation will descend from $100 football tickets and 8-day/7-night fly-away vacations to at-home TV watching and staycations. Wal-Mart and thrift stores will be go-to stores for all but the 1%ers.

Even though the last thing the U.S. needs is a workforce with less motivation and impaired memory, pot will be legalized nationwide. After all, a dispirited populus needs something to dull their pain and fears.

3. Already, the top 5 percent pay 59% of the income tax. "Soak the rich" yet more and many businesses will go out of business or move to a low-tax country. That would be the tipping point--- a big increase in crime, rioting, and substance abuse.

4. In desperation, the heretofore rather anti-business public schools and colleges will feel forced to train more entrepreneurs so more sustainable jobs can be created. But it won't be easy to turn people who aren't, by nature, entrepreneurial to become good enough business owners, especially in a world with more entrepreneurs and fewer people with discretionary income.

5. Because fewer people will be able to afford to buy non-essential items, an ever larger percentage of purchasing will be done by the government---It can raise taxes to pay for what it wants to buy. So   government will continue to grow in its share of GDP.  But at some point, the public will demand a much smaller government, which will put more money back in individuals' and businesses' pockets. That will start a new cycle of development of new products and services and of more hiring, albeit never as much as in the pre-information/pre-industrial age. 

At some point, I'm guessing within a decade, all but highly capable and driven Americans will have to live very simply, perhaps even akin to the way most people lived centuries ago. Who knows? Maybe they'll be happier for it.

A wild card is Armageddon. Technological advances make it ever more likely that even a sole actor could wreak Armageddon. For example, a crazed science professor could create a mutated smallpox virus and release it in a shuttle bus headed to an international airport. 

Perhaps this scenario is unduly negative. After all, for millennia, humankind has prevailed with quality of life generally improving. Let's hope it continues.

Dear reader: your thoughts?

Should You Vote Democrat, Republican, or Libertarian?

I've written a number of pieces that make the case that America is in its decline and fall, exacerbated greatly by the Obama Administration and others in the Hard Left. I'll post links to those articles at the end of the following essay.

This essay makes a different set of arguments for why current American policy and media-perpetrated values are disastrous.

As we enter election season, I believe this essay and mine should be kept in mind as you decide whether to vote Democrat, Republican, or Libertarian.

I'm 63 and I'm Tired
by Robert A. Hall

Except for one semester in college when jobs were scarce and a six-month period when I was between jobs but job-hunting every day, I've worked hard since I was 18. Despite some health challenges, I still put in 50-hour weeks and haven't called in sick in seven or eight years. I make a good salary but I didn't inherit my job or my income and I worked to get where I am. Given the economy, there's no retirement in sight and I'm tired. Very tired.

I'm tired of being told I have to "spread the wealth" to people who don't have my work ethic. I'm tired of being told the government will take the money I earned, by force if necessary, and give it to people too lazy to earn it.

I'm tired of being told I have to pay more taxes to "keep people in their homes." Sure, if they lost their jobs or got sick, I'm willing to help. But not if they bought McMansions at three times the price of our paid-off, $250,000 condo, on one-third of my salary, then let the left-wing Congress-critters who passed Fannie and Freddie and the Community Reinvestment Act create a bubble and a response to it that bails them out with my money.

I'm tired of being told how bad America is by left-wing millionaires like Michael Moore, George Soros and Hollywood Entertainers who live in luxury because of the opportunities America offers. In 30 years, if they get their way, the United States will have the economy of Zimbabwe , the freedom of the press of China , the crime and violence of Mexico , the tolerance for Christian people of Iran , and the freedom of speech of Venezuela

I'm tired of being told that Islam is a "Religion of Peace," when every day I can read dozens of stories of Muslim men killing their sisters, wives and daughters for their family "honor"; of Muslims rioting over some slight offense; of Muslims murdering Christian and Jews because they aren't "believers"; of Muslims burning schools for girls; of Muslims stoning teenage rape victims to death for "adultery"; of Muslims mutilating the genitals of little girls; all in the name of Allah, because the Qur'an and Shari'a law tells them to.

I'm tired of being told that "race doesn't matter" in the post-racial world of Obama, when it's all that matters in affirmative action jobs, lower college admission and graduation standards for minorities (harming them the most), government contract set-asides, tolerance for the ghetto culture of violence and fatherless children that hurts minorities more than anyone, and in the appointment of U.S. Senators from Illinois.

I think it's very cool that we have a black president and that a black child is doing her homework at the desk where Lincoln wrote the Emancipation Proclamation. I just wish the black president was Condi Rice, or someone who believes more in freedom and the individual and less arrogantly of an all-knowing government.

I'm tired of a news media that thinks Bush's fundraising and inaugural expenses were obscene, but think Obama's, at triple the cost, were wonderful; that thinks Bush exercising daily was a waste of presidential time, but Obama exercising is a great example for the public to control weight and stress; that picked over every line of Bush's military records, but never demanded that Kerry release his; that slammed Palin, with two years as governor, for being too inexperienced for VP, but touted Obama with three years as senator as potentially the best president ever. Wonder why people are dropping their subscriptions or switching to Fox News? Get a clue. I didn't vote for Bush in 2000, but the media and Kerry drove me to his camp in 2004.

I'm tired of being told that out of "tolerance for other cultures" we must let Saudi Arabia use our oil money to fund mosques and mandrassa Islamic schools to preach hate in America , while no American group is allowed to fund a church, synagogue or religious school in Saudi Arabia to teach love and tolerance.

I'm tired of being told I must lower my living standard to fight global warming, which no one is allowed to debate. My wife and I live in a two-bedroom apartment and carpool together five miles to our jobs. We also own a three-bedroom condo where our daughter and granddaughter live. Our carbon footprint is about 5% of Al Gore's, and if you're greener than Gore, you're green enough.

I'm tired of being told that drug addicts have a disease, and I must help support and treat them, and pay for the damage they do. Did a giant germ rush out of a dark alley, grab them and stuff white powder up their noses while they tried to fight it off? I don't think Gay people choose to be Gay but I damn sure think druggies chose to take drugs. And I'm tired of harassment from cool people treating me like a freak when I tell them I never tried marijuana.

I'm tired of illegal aliens being called "undocumented workers," especially the ones who aren't working, but are living on welfare or crime. What's next? Calling drug dealers, "Undocumented Pharmacists"? And, no, I'm not against Hispanics. Most of them are Catholic, and it's been a few hundred years since Catholics wanted to kill me for my religion. I'm willing to fast track for citizenship any Hispanic person, who can speak English, doesn't have a criminal record and who is self-supporting without family on welfare, or who serves honorably for three years in our military. Those are the citizens we need.

I'm tired of latte liberals and journalists trashing our military (MN: with the obligatory throw-away line about how wonderful our men and women in uniform are,) who would never wear the uniform of the Republic themselves or let their entitlement-handicapped kids near a recruiting station, They and their kids can sit at home, never having to make split-second decisions under life and death circumstances, and bad-mouth better people than themselves.. Do bad things happen in war? You bet. Do our troops sometimes misbehave? Sure. Does this compare with the atrocities that were the policy of our enemies for the last fifty years and still are? Not even close. So here's the deal. I'll let myself be subjected to all the humiliation and abuse that was heaped on terrorists at Abu Ghraib or Gitmo if the critics would let themselves be subject to captivity by the Muslims, who tortured and beheaded Daniel Pearl in Pakistan, or the Muslims who tortured and murdered Marine Lt. Col. William Higgins in Lebanon, or the Muslims who ran the blood-spattered Al Qaeda torture rooms our troops found in Iraq, or the Muslims who cut off the heads of schoolgirls in Indonesia, because the girls were Christian. Then we'll compare notes. British and American soldiers are the only troops in history that civilians came to for help and handouts, instead of hiding from in fear.

I'm tired of people telling me that their party has a corner on virtue and the other party has a corner on corruption. Read the papers; bums are bipartisan. And I'm tired of people telling me we need bipartisanship. I live in Illinois, where the "Illinois Combine" of Democrats has worked to loot the public for years. Not to mention the tax cheats in Obama's cabinet.

I'm tired of hearing wealthy athletes, entertainers and politicians of both parties talking about innocent mistakes, stupid mistakes or youthful indiscretions, when we all know they think their only mistake was getting caught. I'm tired of people with a sense of entitlement, rich or poor.

Speaking of poor, I'm tired of hearing people with air-conditioned homes, color TVs and two cars called poor. The majority of Americans didn't have that in 1970 but we didn't know we were "poor." The poverty pimps have to keep changing the definition of poor to keep the dollars flowing.

I'm real tired of people who don't take responsibility for their lives and actions. I'm tired of hearing them blame the government, or discrimination, or big-whatever for their problems.

I'm damn tired. But I'm also glad to be 63. Because, mostly, I'm not going to have to see the world these people are making. I'm just sorry for my granddaughter.

* * * * *

Here are links to articles I've written that offer different reasons why America is in its decline and fall.What Happens After America's Decline and Fall

Why High U.S. Unemployment Will be Permanent

Why America is Dying...and What to Do About It

America 2.0: What Happens After America's Decline and Fall?

I have a client in Shanghai, a landscape architect. Like many of his colleagues there, he works from 9 AM to midnight most days--virtually all their waking hours. To encourage that, the employer houses the workers on-site in one-room "apartments" (more like a dorm room) and feeds them cafeteria-style.

That reminds me of the extraordinary work ethic of the Asian students at my alma mater, U.C. Berkeley. As much as Berkeley students normally resist stereotyping, it's widely acknowledged that most of the Asian students work much harder than the other students.

Meanwhile, America, in its attempt to be a kind nation, is making decision after decision to redistribute resources from those with the greatest potential to create jobs and thereby stimulate the economy, to those with the least. For example, the government continues to take our tax dollars, print money, and borrow from China, endangering our children's and our nation's future, to pay for, for instance:

• Extending unemployment payments, a not insubstantial amount (about $2,000 a month in large states), to a remarkable 99 weeks, which so encourages people to not look for jobs. (Nearly all my clients who are on unemployment say they wait until it's about to run out before they'll look for a job.) In responding to today's jobs report in which the private sector created almost no jobs (the job growth was mainly government temporary census workers) President Obama is calling for even more money to give to the unemployed.
  
• Prop up companies that make inferior cars.
  
• Wage wars and build nation-states in places like Afghanistan and Iraq.
• Aid countless poor countries.
• Not only condones but financially supports uncontrolled illegal immigration: largely poor, uneducated people from an agrarian society, unscreened for criminality, diseases, etc. For example, public schools are not allowed to ask parents whether they're here legally. The toll on the schools is tremendous: unprecedentedly large numbers of non-English-speaking students from poor backgrounds descending upon the schools, with their advocates insisting they be taught in the same classes as native speakers, which forces dumbing down of instruction. And the proposed "Dream Act," would enable illegal immigrants to attend our most prestigious public universities at in-state tuition. Because of reverse discrimination admission policies, that would mean that, for example, many legal residents of Arizona with an excellent high-school record and willing to pay the high out-of-state tuition, would likely be rejected from UCLA or Berkeley so an illegal with a worse high-school record could be admitted and allowed to pay only the low in-state tuition, and likely receive all sorts of scholarships and financial aid to boot. And now, when President Obama fulfills his promise of comprehensive immigration reform/amnesty, the illegals will qualify for ObamaCare and because most immigrants and their family members' income are low, they'll have their health care paid for by the taxpayer and will additionally overwhelm our health care system.
  

Ironic that America's kindness will be a major source of its demise.

Activists tout diversity as a strength. As I've seen it play out in workplaces and schools, it's a net weakness. Companies spend billions of dollars to manage diversity, this supposed strength. And among my career counseling clients, I almost never hear them discuss their workplace's diversity as a strength but often as a weakness: "All the Filipinos hang out by themselves and talk in Tagalog," The Black manager lets the Black employees get away with stuff they'd never let the white employees get away with." "I hate the Asians. They have no work-life balance and make us all look bad." "They don't speak English. I can't understand them and they can't understand me."

Perhaps the most powerful factor that will reduce America to third-world status is the gap between its middle 75% of its population versus that of countries like China and India. Those countries have a deep bench. Compare the Chinese or Indian average person, where hard work, science, technology, and entrepreneurship are core. Compare that with America's 225 million people in our middle 75%. I do not have statistics, but visits to average classes in average high schools and colleges and conversations with average people (for example, while waiting in line at supermarkets, the Department of Motor Vehicles, etc) let's just say, do not inspire optimism.

I am aware that America retains strengths, for example, it tends to value creativity, its women and minorities have opportunities, its universities produce top research (along with a lot of junk,) it offers strong consumer and worker protections. (Although the latter makes it very expensive to hire employees in the U.S., which encourages offshoring.) The U.S. still is the hub of the world's financial, biotechnology, and entertainment industries.

I am also aware of China''s and India's weaknesses, for example, an out-of-balance work ethic, an aging population, water supply problems, pollution, religious extremism (India), and a perhaps excessively conformist mindset.

But, net, I am convinced that we are seeing America's sunset and the Indo-China Empire's sunrise. All empires have their rise and fall: The Roman, The Ottoman, the British, and, I believe, now, the American.

So what do I predict for America? That we will join the world of nations as just another country, with a lower standard of living. Like residents of most countries, we will live in small apartments, drive small cars or not drive, eat more basic food, wear more basic clothes. The America of $200 jeans, $4.00 cups of coffee, and widely held mini-mansions will be over. Maybe that's a good thing, and just maybe, that will reduce the enmity that foreign terrorist groups have for the U.S.

What's an American to do? Learn that living simply doesn't mean living badly. Expect that you'll likely have long periods of un- and underemployment. To keep feeling productive, find rewarding productive, non-paying work: tutor a kid, act in a play, clean up the dog poop on your block. Constantly be nice--look for every opportunity to make the lives of those around you, including strangers, better. You may end up more contented and maybe even America 2.0 will, net, be a better place to live.

Oh, and invest in FXI, the China equivalent of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average.

America is Making a Risky Bet on its Entire Future

Since the 1960s, America has been placing ever more of its chips on replacing its culture with one that--as soon as possible--has no dominant culture, in which its residents (legal and illegal) have primary identification with their own race, ethnicity, gender, religion, or sexual orientation.

I am certainly not enamored of some aspects of American culture, for example, its worship of materialism and of celebrity, the too-great disparity between rich and poor, its failure to provide an adequate health care safety net, and the liberal bias of its most influential media and colleges. But America has spawned a generally good quality of life for most Americans and produced a remarkable array of accomplishments from the car to the computer, from stents to Spielberg.

I am amazed that America is betting its entire future on multiculturalism. Yes, the U.S. could end up a dynamic place in which "diversity is our greatest strength," but multiculturalism could, instead, accelerate America's descent into third-world status. After all, not one of the world's 200+ countries is a clear multicultural success story. Diversity, far from a strength, seems, in every country including the U.S., to perennially be more a source of strife than of strength.

Yet, without firing a shot, identity groups within the U.S. are replacing American culture with some yet evolving mixture in which pluribus drowns out unum, in which what's good for America (let alone the world) is replaced with what's good for Latinos, women, Blacks, fundamentalist Christians, etc.

As the decades go on, would you bet that most Americans will find the U.S. a more pleasant or less pleasant place to live? A more productive or less productive country? I'm not sure, but I am certain that we don't have sufficient basis for betting the whole country's future on multiculturalism.