Showing posts with label irrationality. Show all posts
Showing posts with label irrationality. Show all posts

Monday, November 21, 2016

Why Even Some Smart People Are Superstitious


Today, when science and rational thought are extolled, why are many people still superstitious? 

And as University of Chicago behavioral scientist Jane Risen documents, 

Superstitions are not limited to individuals with mental deficits. More than half of surveyed Americans, for example, admit to knocking on wood and almost one in four avoid walking under ladders. Approximately one-third of surveyed college students regularly engage in exam-related superstitions.

In my PsychologyToday.com article today, I offer a number of possible explanations. 

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Irrationality and Human Behavior: An interview with Robert Shiller

Most prediction models assume that people act rationally. Robert Shiller won the Nobel Prize, in part, for adding people’s irrationality to those models.

My interview with him is my PsychologyToday.com article today.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

People are Stupid

This is an adapted excerpt from my newest book, "What's the Big Idea? 39 Disruptive Proposals. 

We deify rational thinking: We teach it relentlessly in schools. We admire our universities and think tanks. We make fun of stupidity. Yet so much of what we do is downright idiotic.

Investing
Seventy-seven percent of mutual fund investors use actively managed mutual funds rather than index funds, even though decades of data make clear that index investors do better.

Homeland Security
We spend billions every year, including to make every airplane passenger spend a half hour or more in line, taking off their shoes, and having their toothpaste checked to ensure it weighs less than three ounces, when even a retarded terrorist knows we do that and so would simply bomb one of the millions of unsecured targets, for example, a water reservoir in Wyoming or a Bar-Mitzvah in Brooklyn. A more sophisticated terrorist would, in the  lobby of an international airport terminal, reach into a shopping bag, open a vial of highly communicable mutated smallpox virus and saunter across the terminal, infecting enough people headed all over the world to kill billions. A rational government would accept that we can't stop terrorism by policing it no matter how many billions we spend. But we're not rational.

Religion
A Google Search on the term "Surrender to God" yields 900,000 links. Countless people follow the Bible's urging to be passive, to wait for God to provide. For example, 

Philippians 4:19 Be not wise in your own eyes; God shall supply all your need.

Proverbs 3:1: Trust in the Lord with all your heart, and do not lean on your own understanding.

1 Corinthians 10:17  God is faithful, and he will not let you be tempted beyond your ability,

Matthew 17:20  If you have faith like a grain of mustard seed, you will say to this mountain, ‘Move from here to there,’ and it will move, and nothing will be impossible for you.
What are the odds there is an omniscient, omnipotent deity watching the seven billion people's every move to ensure they all do okay? Forget about whether surrendering to God will result in your landing a good job in this economy. Remember that billions of people, including newborns have died screaming in agony. And what about all those catastrophic earthquakes and epidemics? And if "God will provide," why do billions of people lack basic food, water, shelter, and health care? Could anyone with a mote of rationality "surrender to God?" 

Education as key to closing the achievement gap
We continue to bet billions and billions on education as the tool most likely to close the achievement gap. That, despite more than a half-century and trillions of dollars (also see this) spent trying so many permutations and combinations of teaching style, curriculum, etc. Yet the achievement gap remains as wide as ever. We haven't been able to do better than to tout a non-replicable superstar teacher or pilot program: from Marva Collins (her school is now closed due to lack of enrollment) to Michelle Rhee's DC non-miracle, to bad-data KIPP, to the latest fad, Khan Academy. Go take a Khan Academy lesson and ask yourself if a year of that is likely to close the algebra achievement gap. They're boring. Only highly motivated students will learn algebra that way. Do you really think America's low achievers will learn algebra so much better with Khan lessons as to close the achievement gap?

Yet we continue to prefer to bury our heads in the sand and bet a fortune and our children's future that the next classroom innovation du jour will close the achievement gap. Couldn't the enormous costs of those classroom programs, trainings, etc., be more wisely spent? For example, mightn't it be wise to accept that we aren't close to knowing how to close the achievement gap and so rather than spending more trillions on unlikely-to-work classroom programs, reallocate those dollars to foundational research on figuring out the gap's true roots and only then develop programs based on those roots, and if there's money left,  return it to the taxpayer?  But we are not rational. 

A Solution
 The most important thing schools and colleges should teach is how to think rationally: 
 how to make decisions based on an probability-based assessments of risk, reward, cost and opportunity cost. But we're too busy teaching the periodic table of elements, the causes of the French and Indian Wars, and how to solve quadratic equations.
 

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