If There Was No Work: A fictional short-short story and thought experiment

The End of Work, The End of the World?

A World With Few Decent Jobs: A pessimistic but possible scenario

Previously on PsychologyToday.com, I’ve written job projections, for example, this, that concludes that for, at least the next decade or two, we needn’t worry much. 

Alas, there is another scenario worth contemplating in which far fewer decent jobs will be available. I lay it out in my PsychologyToday.com article today.

The Dejobbing of Society and What to Do About It

Over the past two years on my radio program , I've been talking to a range of experts on the future of work. Today, after reading a long cover story on the topic in The Atlantic, I decided to synthesize my thoughts in my PsychologyToday.com article today.

The End of Jobs...Hurray?

This appeared in the April 2014 edition of the Mensa publication, The Intelligencer.

The End of Jobs…Hurray? 

by Marty Nemko

By now, everyone knows the unemployment rate severely masks the true employment situation. Not only does it not count people who have given up on looking for work, it doesn’t count the underemployed: for example, college-degree holders with jobs that don’t require a degree, or people working part-time/temp when they’d prefer a full-time, secure position.

Ever more jobs are automated. Bank teller jobs have been replaced by ATMs, supermarket cashier jobs by self-checkout, tolltakers by FastTrak. In the face of increased minimum wage and living wage ordinances, robotic fast-food preparers and servers have been developed: custom burger and burrito makers in California, sushi makers in Japan, cookie makers in Poland. The automated barista may replace that failsafe job—Starbucks barista. There’s a robot bookstore clerk and IBM is developing a robot retail clothing clerk.  Many but not all customers will prefer that to the $10 an hour pushy but often incompetent sales clerk. And retail employers will prefer not having to worry about employees taking sick days when not sick, being bad with customers, and/or quitting soon after being trained—turnover in retail is over 100 percent. Bartending jobs are at-risk. I just went to a dance at a venue where the bartender was a machine: stick your credit card in, pick your drink from the screen, and out it comes, just like from a soda vending machine. Leading companies such as Google, FedEx, and Amazon are investing big in driverless vehicles—bye-bye jobs as taxi drivers, truck drivers, bus drivers, even train engineers. Even home-building is at risk. 3D-printers are projected to be able to print homes out of concrete in under a day—bye-bye thousands of construction jobs.
 

And of course, there’s offshoring. While politicians keep urging more Americans to major in a tough science, technology, engineering, or math (STEM) field, ever more of those tech jobs are being offshored, notably to India and China, which have a long tradition of valuing science, math, and technology, and populations many times the size of the U.S.’s. Already, there's an oversupply of STEM graduates. Evidence:THIS  and THIS and THIS and THIS.That can only accelerate as ever more work product can be sent over the internet. Ever more companies are figuring, “Why should I pay American wages plus Workers Comp, Disability, Social Security, ObamaCare, paid family leave, Americans with Disabilities Act compliance costs, plus that of ever increasing employee lawsuits, when I can get someone in Asia for a small fraction of the cost? Are American workers really so superior?”

In a TED talk, Dr. Thomas Frey, Google’s top-rated futurist speaker, projects that, by 2030, half of all jobs worldwide, two billion, will be lost. An Oxford University study projects that half of U.S. jobs will be lost just to automation. One could quibble with the percentage but our job security certainly will be at ever greater risk.

Then what will happen?

It’s easy to project a dystopian scenario: mass unemployment leading to mass destitution, armed robberies, and drug abuse to anesthetize the pain. 

But I thought it would be more interesting here to do a thought experiment in which the end of jobs would actually be a net positive for society.

With fewer people earning good incomes, only companies that provide basic products and services will thrive. That will be good for the environment. For example, car manufacturing will shrink and sell only affordable, economical cars. And people will repair and repair their old vehicles rather than buy new. Even if government takes over the airlines, the cost of planes, fuel, maintenance, and personnel will discourage people from flying. Again, good for the environment.

Also, today’s materialistic society tempts people to cut ethical corners to make more money so they can buy more stuff: new car, nicer clothes and jewelry, fancier vacations, live in 3,000 fancy square feet rather than 1,000 serviceable ones. In an economy in which fewer people are working let alone earning big bucks, materialism would be less core to societal values, reducing those pressures to be unethical.

Plus, with people having more time, more people will replace gratification from “stuff” with gratification from learning, creative arts, and in relationships from mentorship to family to involvement in pro-social organizations: from Rotary to SmileTrain to Mensa.

In the meantime
Even if you have a good job, might this column’s look at the future justify reconsidering your priorities? Yes, perhaps do more to secure your employment: upgrade your skills, work a little harder, build relationships with people who can abet your career, consider starting a business. But might replacing a materialistic lifestyle with a more meaningful one be good preparation not only for a scarce-jobs future but for your current life?

Days of Our Work Lives: An unvarnished look at work today: Part I: David's Saga. Episode 16: The End of Jobs

Days of Our Work Lives

Part I: David's Saga

Episode 16

The End of Jobs

In the previous episode, David and Susan tried to figure out the wisest approach to charity.  Having enjoyed the unusually deep conversation, they decided to go even deeper: "What will happen when ever more jobs get automated and offshored?"

This time, it wasn't much of a dialogue. It was something David has been thinking about for a long time:

"All we keep hearing is how jobs are disappearing. First it was ATMs replacing tellers, then self-checkout replacing supermarket checkers. Now they're developing driverless vehicles, robotic fast-food chefs and servers, baristas, and bartenders. 

"Wonderful, transformative teachers will, on video, teach classes using immersive simulations and interactivity. The human touch will be provided by lower-paid paraprofessionals. That will eliminate millions of teaching jobs, from elementary school to graduate school.

"IBM is developing a robot that will replace those annoying clothing sales clerks---It will use a laser to instantly get your measurements and walk you to clothes and the retailer's website items that will look great on you.

"IBM is also developing Dr. Watson, software aimed at being better than human doctors at diagnosing and recommending treatment. Indeed, artificial intelligence is replacing all sorts of professionals, from accountants to insurance adjusters.

Susan interrupted: "They've always said that every time a technology was invented: the cotton gin was going to eliminate farming jobs. The car was going to eliminate blacksmith and buggy-whip makers. Yet every time, more jobs were created."

David replied, "This time will be different because unlike previous generations of manufacturing, when you develop a piece of software, just a few people are required to distribute it worldwide. Besides, the cost of hiring an American has gone wild, with ObamaCare merely the latest on top of disability, worker's comp, Social Security, ADA compliance, Family and Medical Leave, and defending the ever increasing number of worker-rights lawsuits. With demographic trends and the Democrats' far superior messaging machine, Internet strategy, and ground game, and with the media at their back. this ain't no pendulum: it's a long-term trend. There simply won't be enough jobs.

Susan asked, "So what's going to happen?"

"In the short run, the middle class will keep getting hollowed out. People such as software engineers for companies that make silicon-based products--the Apples, Googles, Amazons--will do fine. And people in such non-offshoreable, not-automatable professions like dentist, occupational therapist, and fitness trainer will also be okay. But most other folks will have no choice but to take a menial service job like restaurant worker."

Susan asked, "But won't that cause a revolution?"

"It could. To avoid it, the government will have to keep extending unemployment checks indefinitely, or institute a guaranteed income. 

"With few people making a good income, only companies that provide the basics will stay viable. Even car manufacturers will go out of business because people will keep their cars longer and longer, repairing and repairing rather than replacing with new. People won't be able to afford to fly--the cost of the airplanes and the fuel will be beyond what people can pay, even if the airlines were to make no profit and the government were to nationalize them. 

"And of course, it becomes a vicious cycle. The more companies that go out of business, the fewer the jobs, and the less income people make. 

Susan asked, "So what will happen in the long-term?"

David replied, "My best guess is that we will become a much less materialistic society. We'll live very simply, much like we did centuries ago except that with computers and software being cheap, everyone will have technology to enhance their lives. The focus of government and private initiatives will be on the basics like health care, which will continue to improve thanks to that ever improving technology. 

"People need to work to have a sense of meaning, so they will continue to work at low or even no pay, just as so many journalists, artists, even reader reviewers on Amazon do today. 

"And we'll have more spare time, which we will, hopefully, use wisely. Rather than getting drunk or stoned on pot--which I'm sure will be legalized nationwide if only to anesthetize the population through its jobectomy--more people will focus on creative expression through writing and the arts, and through relationships: mentoring, friendship, and family. And the lack of materialism will be good for the environment."

Susan asked,, "But is human nature hard-wired to compete, to be acquisitional?

David replied, "It's possible. And if a few such people start that, it would trigger others to follow and we could end up back where we were. 

"But I feel the need to be a little more optimistic than that about humankind. If so, crazy at it may seem, the end of jobs, may in the end, net, be good for humankind."

Susan responded, "So every time I hear of another job getting roboticized, I should cheer?"

"Maybe."

And with that, David and Susan stared into the fire until all that was left in their personal pyrospectacular were a few embers floating into the chimney. Alas, tomorrow was to be less peaceful.

HERE is the next and final episode of David's Saga.

Why I Worry: Reasons for Pessimism

I know it serves no purpose to worry about what you can't control, but I can't help it.

I worry about terrorism. Just a few examples: mutated smallpox released in an airport lobby, hacking a "too-big-to-fail' financial institution including the U.S. Treasury, a reservoir poisoned with a communicable pathogen, a suicide bomber detonating a nuke from his truck in Times Square or near a major power station.

I worry there won't be enough work to go around. Ever more onerous costs of employing an American will accelerate use of technology and offshoring to replace human workers.

I worry that despite 75 years of massive effort and multi-trillion-dollar spending on education and job training, the achievement gap remains as wide as ever. And as ever more jobs require ever more reasoning and technical skills, I fear the achievement gap will expand yet further. 

I worry about Americans' health care.  The system is already overwhelmed, killing 440,000 patients due to medical errors every year.  Add millions more people, mainly low-paying, and we're all at literally grave risk.

I worry about a country that can't restrain itself from spending more than it has, no matter how big its debt nor how fast that debt is growing. Eventually it will come back to haunt us: perhaps the U.S. owned by China, perhaps wildly inflating dollars, rampant poverty. I'm not smart enough to know what will happen. I do know that massive debt is a house of cards.

I worry that the least intelligent people have the most babies.

I worry about dying--usually painful, protracted, ending in nothingness.

I worry that I'm not as savvy as I need to be as a counselor. I try so hard with every client yet too many don't end up successful.

I worry that I'm not a good enough husband.

I worry that all my books, articles, blog posts, and tweets won't have made enough of a difference.

I wish I could be more optimistic and where that's not rational, that I could anesthetize myself with fun or religion. Alas, I can't.